Weprin Ahead In Polls, But Just Barely – The Race For Weiner's Seat Will Be Close!

The results of the first poll to take a look at the race for the 9th Congressional District – recently vacated by Anthony Weiner – are out, and it looks like our neck of the woods is going to see a much closer race than Democratic operatives would like.

The results of the poll – conducted by Sienna College – show that in the overall district, Democrat David Weprin is winning by a mere six points. But, perhaps more notably to Sheepshead Bay residents, it appears the Brooklyn segment of the district is swinging right-ward, with Republican Bob Turner leading by six percent.

Here’s a graph of the results, plucked by our friends over at The Brooklyn Politics:

Here’s a bit of a demographic breakdown by Sienna pollster Steven Greenberg:

Men are currently evenly divided, and women give Weprin an 11-point advantage.  While voters under 55-years-of-age give Weprin a big lead, voters 55 and older – a crucial voting bloc, particularly in a special election – are virtually evenly divided.  Catholic voters give a big edge to Turner, while Jewish voters give an equally big edge to Weprin.  At the moment, Turner voters appear to be more committed to their candidate, with 60 percent saying they are absolutely certain to support him. Only 47 percent of Weprin voters say there is no chance they will change their mind.

Interestingly, the results of this poll illustrate just how much more conservative the Brooklyn portion of the Ninth district has become than its Queens counterpart. Why do you think that is?