October Crime Stats: A Mixed Bag, Brooklyn Leads The City

October Crime Stats: A Mixed Bag, Brooklyn Leads The City
Mayor Bill de Blasio holds a media availability with NYC Police Commissioner Dermot Shea and announces Juanita Holmes as the next Chief of Patrol for the NYPD. City Hall. Thursday, October 29, 2020. Credit: Ed Reed/Mayoral Photography Office.

New York Police Department released the data last night for crimes reported in October. The numbers are up year on year, but down significantly compared to September in some of the major categories, most notably murders.

Citywide: During October shootings were up 121% (137 v. 62 in October 2019), burglaries were up 32% (1,363 v. 1,031) and auto thefts increased 79% (933 v. 522).  Murders were down 3% – 35 people were killed in October compared to 36 in October of last year.

NYPD CompStat data as of 11/01/2020

Year-to-date numbers: Shootings are up almost double – 94% (1,299 v. 670), murders are up 37.2% (387 v. 282), and burglaries are up 41.6% (12,673 v. 8,951)

Gun arrests more than doubled in October, 502 v 248, while year-to-date, the number of gun arrests were up just 15% (3,308 vs. 2,876).

The report that was released did not compare the last two months, but those numbers  look a bit less bleak.

Murders citywide are down 31.4% in October compared to September, shootings are down almost 10%, rape is down 8.6%. In the meantime, transit crimes are up 32%, burglaries are up 8.6% and assaults and robberies are both up 5%, based on NYPD monthly reports:

Oct 2020 Sept 2020 Change %
Murder 35 51 -16 -31.37%
Rape 127 139 -12 -8.63%
Robbery 1,239 1180 59 5.00%
Assault 1,794 1711 83 4.85%
Burglary 1,363 1255 108 8.61%
Grand Larceny 3,407 3639 -232 -6.38%
G.L.A. 933 977 -44 -4.50%
TOTAL 8,898 8952 -54 -0.60%
Oct 2020 Sept 2020 Change %
Transit 149 113 36 31.86%
Housing 458 443 15 3.39%
Shooting Incidents 137 152 -15 -9.87%

We asked NYPD for similar breakdowns for Brooklyn, but have not heard back. The format NYPD typically reports crime data is on weekly basis, not calendar.

Nevertheless, Brooklyn accounts for more than its share of the crime in the city – we are home to just 31.3% of the population. So far this year, 148 of the city’s 390 murders have taken place in Brooklyn – that’s 37.95%. We also account for 42.8% of the shootings (558) and 43.4% of people shot (696 so far this year).

Our precincts take all the top spots for murders, shootings, number of shooting victims, with 75th Precinct relinquishing the top spot among precincts only a few times. So far this year in 75th Precinct a total of 2,836 major crimes have been reported – over 1,000 more than in the next precinct – 40th Precinct in the Bronx has logged 1977. Our 73rd, 67th and 77th Precincts are also unfortunately highly ranked.

Looking at patrols, in Brooklyn South, murders are up 89.3% year to date (53 v 28), car thefts are up 75.7% and burglaries are up 25.4%. Detailed data in the screenshot from NYPD CompStat:

NYPD CompStat data as of 11/01/2020

The number of shootings and shooting victims is up massively, both month to month (20 and 28 versus 5 and 6 last year) as well as year on year – approaching three times the numbers recorded last year: 195 shooting incidents with 258 victims compared to 77 incidents with 93 victim.

In Brooklyn North, murders are up 55.7% year on year (95 v 61) and 83% month to month – 10 v 6. Burglaries stayed about the same month to month, but are up year on year 30%. However car thefts more than doubled this month – 136 v 66 compared to October last year, and are up 41% year on year.

NYPD CompStat data as of 11/01/2020

Shootings and shooting victims are double what they were last year, and month to month. According to data above, there were 355 shootings with 429 victims this year compared to 165 and 214 respectively this time last year.

The Spin:

Mayor Bill De Blasio at Press Conference today:

“Look – the statistics showed a number of things, and we’ve talked about the challenges we’ve faced because of the coronavirus and all the challenges in our society, but there were also some very important examples in those reports that I think we need to remember. Look we saw a huge increase in gun arrests. That’s a very important, positive thing. We saw some major categories of crime actually going down this October versus last October, murder down by one, but still that’s one life saved. We saw rape going down, burglary, grand larceny, other categories. So I think this is indicative of the fact that the NYPD, despite everything that was thrown at it is rallying its forces, working more closely with communities.

“We are going to take the neighborhood policing philosophy and make it work in this situation, keep making adjustments, obviously our new Chief of Patrol Juanita Holmes was going to be a key figure in that. So I think if you look at that report closely, it shows us some of the things that are part of how we’re going to make the comeback here. And again, the Commissioner and I get together and we have something to specifically report on as we did the other day with the naming of Chief Holmes, and it’s something that indicates to me the future direction of this department. Go ahead.”

Mayor on Inside City Hall with Errol Louis:

“Errol, we’ve really talked about this a lot, but I’ll say it again. We’ve experienced a global pandemic, a perfect storm of negative factors this year, including people being out of work in huge numbers, schools shut down, houses of worship, shut down all the underpinnings of society disrupted, and it’s been an incredibly difficult time. On top of that for a long time, a lot of officers were out sick. The court system was closed. I mean, you could go on and on.

“This is not like any year in the history of New York City. Nonetheless, this city’s fighting back. The people of this city had been working with NYPD to fight back. We’re seeing a major, major increase in gun arrests. The NYPD has been making a lot of adjustments in strategy to address the situation, and look, we’re going to get past this because we’re going to get out of this pandemic. We’re going to start our recovery and next year is going to be a very, very different year. So it’s been incredibly tough, but I have confidence that we’ll turn this around because we’re going to turn around the overall situation and get past the coronavirus.”

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